Will Central Asia Become an Arena for Great Power Rivalry Over Rare Earths?
Introduction
Rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of 17 metallic elements that are essential for a wide range of modern technologies, including smartphones, electric vehicles, and renewable energy systems. Central Asia is home to some of the world's largest REE deposits, making it a potential flashpoint for great power rivalry as countries seek to secure access to these critical resources.
China's Dominance in the REE Market
China currently dominates the global REE market, accounting for over 90% of global production. This dominance has given China significant leverage in the pricing and supply of REEs, and it has used this leverage to advance its economic and geopolitical interests.
China's REE dominance is a major concern for other countries, particularly the United States and its allies. The United States, for example, relies heavily on China for its REE supply, and this reliance makes it vulnerable to supply disruptions or price increases.
Central Asia's REE Potential
Central Asia is home to some of the world's largest REE deposits, including the Bayan Obo deposit in China, the Kounrad deposit in Kazakhstan, and the Erdenet deposit in Mongolia. These deposits have the potential to supply a significant portion of global REE demand.
The development of REE mines in Central Asia could help to diversify the global REE supply chain and reduce China's dominance in the market. However, the development of these mines is also likely to attract the attention of great powers, particularly China, the United States, and Russia.
Great Power Rivalry in Central Asia
The potential development of REE mines in Central Asia is likely to intensify great power rivalry in the region. China is likely to seek to maintain its dominance in the REE market by controlling access to Central Asian deposits.
The United States and its allies are likely to seek to counter China's influence in Central Asia and secure access to REE supplies. Russia is also likely to play a role in the region, as it has its own REE deposits and interests in Central Asia.
Implications for Central Asia
The great power rivalry over REEs is likely to have significant implications for Central Asia. The development of REE mines could bring economic benefits to the region, but it could also lead to environmental degradation and social unrest.
Central Asian countries will need to carefully manage the development of their REE resources to ensure that they benefit from these resources while minimizing the negative impacts.
Conclusion
The development of REE mines in Central Asia is likely to intensify great power rivalry in the region. China, the United States, and Russia are all likely to compete for access to these critical resources.
Central Asian countries will need to carefully manage the development of their REE resources to ensure that they benefit from these resources while minimizing the negative impacts.
